Friday, December 10, 2004

Heisman Trophy: Comparing the QBs

Heisman Trophy: Comparing the QBs and a compelling case for Alex Smith.

Focusing my review on the three QBs: Alex Smith of Utah, Matt Leinart of USC, and Jason White of Oklahoma.

Two Arguments that offset in my opinion:

Level of competition. Its hard to argue against this other than Alex shined against the two toughest teams the Utes played (North Carolina and Texas A&M). He didn’t even play a complete game against either team because the Utes were throttling each opponent.

Supporting Cast. Both White and Leinart have other first team All-American’s (based upon the Sporting News) and even Heisman finalists on their teams in Adrian Peterson and Reggie Bush. In fact depending who you talk to, Peterson and Bush can be argued to be more valueable to their respective teams. Alex carried the load and was the featured guy to stop against every opponent.

I hearby call the two items, Level of Competition and Supporting Cast as a wash.

Looking at the Statistical Argument, it isn’t very close:

QB Rating;
Smith 174.9
White 162.9
Leinart 154.5

TDs:
White 33
Smith 28
Leinart 28

NOTE: Alex only played 11 games, while White and Leinart both played 12.

TDs per Pass Attempt:
Smith 10.0
White 10.7
Leinart 13.46

Yard per Pass Attempt:
Smith 9.4
White 8.4
Leinart 7.9

Interceptions:
Smith 4
White 6
Leinart 6

Rushing Yards:
Smith 562
Leinart -33
White -48

Rushing TDs:
Smith 10
Leinart 3
White 0

Total Yards
Smith 3187
Leinart 2957
White 2913

Points Accounted For per game
Smith 20.7
White 16.5
Leinart 13.46


Other points:

Leinart deserves enormous credit for directing his team to an undefeated season, while USC wore a bulls-eye as defending national champion. He is a worthy candidate, but I’d vote no higher than 3rd.

White deserves credit as being the defending Heisman trophy winner and having the pressure that goes along with those expectations. I vote him 2nd.

Smith deserves credit for directing arguably the most complex offense in the country. If people saw the Ute offense last year and this year, they would see how much better it was and how technical and diverse it was over last season. Most people assume Utah to be a wide open heavy passing team, and therefore Smith’s amazing passing statistics were generated while pummeling lower quality opponents with a relentless passing attack. Not True. However, the Utes were actually ranked higher nationally for their rushing game (9th) than their passing game (24th). Smith’s numbers were derived from a balanced attack that saw him throw many fewer passes (280) than Leinart (377) or White (354). Alex’s percentage is so high because he doesn’t throw the ball down the field like White and Leinart. Not True. As the above statistics show, Alex’s yards per attempt were actually higher than both other QBs. Lastly, the Utes were so dominating this year, that Alex rarely played the 4th quarter of his games, and therefore had little to no chance to ‘pad’ his stats.

In conclusion, Alex Smith is not the favorite to win the award and it’s really an honor for him to be a finalist and even be invited to New York. The Heisman folks probably will feel like they did a good deed to invite the guy from the smaller school to the big time party. The only problem with this view, is that it sounds remarkably similar to the BCS approach on the bowl games. They make it darn near impossible for a non BCS school to make it to the bowl games, and if they do, they get saddled with a lessor team like Pittsburgh. So like Alex, a non BCS school can sometimes crash the big party, but they can’t really take away the top honor (National Championship).

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