March Gladness Update: Utah-Kentucky preview

Tonight the 6th seeded, University of Utah battles the 3rd seed, Kentucky Wildcats in the Austin region of the NCAA tournament.

Utah 29-5 VS Kentucky 27-5

If you read a story about this game is will probably consist of talk about how great Andrew Bogut is and Kentucky's goal of stopping him, or you'll hear how Kentucky has beaten the Utes 5 straight times in the NCAA tournament since 1993. I don't disagree with either point, Andrew Bogut is great and a key, and yes Kentucky has beaten the Utes in the tournament before, but there are other things to consider.

Utah and Kentucky Mumblings....

• Kentucky is the favorite to win. Although, not the way they might have been favored in previous seasons. Vegas only has the Wildcats favored by 4 1/2 points.
• These are pretty young teams, given their place in the tournament. The two teams combine to start only two seniors.
  
• McDonalds knows more than Super Sized Meals. For a high school player there isn't many accolades higher than being named to the McDonald's all-American team. Super sized players usually go to the top basketball schools. In this case, Kentucky had one of the best recruiting classes in the country last year, netting a whopping three Big Macs in one year. Two of those guys, Guard Rajon Rando and Center Randolph Morris start as freshman. Utah, has at least three guys who ate at McDonalds this week.
• A good start to the game and rebounding could be keys to Utah's success. On the season, the Utes are 29-1 when leading at halftime and 28-3 when out rebounding their opponent.
• Kentucky has a legendary NCAA history. Utah, however, isn't exactly a slouch. This is the Utes 9th appearance in the Sweet 16 since 1975.
• The media is making a huge deal over the fact that Kentucky plays up to 13 players per game. The assertion is that Kentucky has so much talent and depth that they can force a tempo and a high scoring game that Utah cannot adapt to. The counterpoint would be, if Kentucky had its usual NBA caliber talent the starters would play more. As far as high scoring, this Wildcat team only scores five points more per game than Utah (73.5-68.4).
• Kentucky has lost 5 games this season, all of them to quality opponents: Florida (twice), North Carolina, Kansas, and South Carolina.
• The only common opponent for the Utes and Wildcats is the Coppin State Eagles. Speaking of Coppin St., they seemed to be everybody's tune up team this year and they played 7 NCAA teams: Utah, Kentucky, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Texas, and Delaware St.

Why Utah will win
For starters, Kentucky lost to Florida twice, who lost to LSU, who lost to Utah.

A couple of other considerations. Utah turns the ball over a lot (14 per game) which could allow Kentucky to take advantage. However, Kentucky also turns the ball over a lot (13 per game) and so one area that may have been a big Wildcat advantage may not play out like the experts expect. Bogut will impact the game, but Kentucky will make such an effort to stop him, he may not have a big scoring day. However, his presence will open the door for the other Utes to hit some shots. Unlike some past years, these guys can and should be able to seize the opportunity.
For Kentucky to win, they will have to make some outside shots. Oklahoma and UTEP couldn't and they lost. In fact, most of Utah's opponents have not. However, New Mexico had some strong outside shooting games when they beat Utah twice this season. Unlike other experts, I don't see fatigue being the key issue. I do think Kentucky will try and get Bogut tired, but I think fouls are more important. If Bogut and Marc Jackson stay out of foul trouble, the Utes will be better than Kentucky at the two most important positions and have a chance to win.